Market studies the current scenario as well as future market potential of "The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 - 2020 - Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue"
As a natural upgrade path for carriers from the previously detached GSM, CDMA and TD-SCDMA ecosystems, LTE has emerged as the first truly global mobile communications standard. Commonly marketed as the “4G” standard, LTE promises to provide higher data rates and lower latency at a much lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) than 3G technologies.
The TCO and performance is further enhanced by deployment of small cells and the LTE-Advanced standard. LTE-Advanced or simply LTE-A is a further enhancement to LTE which improves performance and data rates using features such as the aggregation of carriers, interference management and advanced antenna techniques.
With over 265 fully commercial network launches, LTE adoption has considerably gained momentum throughout the globe, and a number of carriers have already deployed LTE-A features such as carrier aggregation. SNS Research estimates that LTE service revenues will account for $103 Billion in 2014. Revenues are further expected to grow at a CAGR of 40% over the next 6 years.
Driven by these revenue prospects, operators continue to aggressively invest in LTE infrastructure, encompassing macrocell base stations (eNBs), small cells and EPC/mobile core equipment. LTE infrastructure spending is expected to account for nearly $15 Billion by the end of 2014.
While LTE and LTE-A deployments are still underway, wireless carriers and vendors have already embarked on R&D projects to develop 5G standards, which offer even higher data rates than LTE-A. SNS Research predicts that fully commercial 5G services will be rolled out by the end of 2020.
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The “LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 – Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue” report presents an in-depth assessment of the LTE, LTE-A and emerging 5G ecosystem including key market drivers, challenges, operator revenue potential, infrastructure/device deployment commitments, future roadmap, value chain, vendor market share and strategies. The report also presents revenue and shipment market size and forecasts for both infrastructure and devices, along with subscription and service revenue projections for the LTE market as a whole, as well as separate projections for the TD-LTE and LTE FDD sub-markets from 2014 through to 2020. Historical figures are also presented for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.
The report comes with an associated Excel datasheet suite covering quantitative data from all numeric forecasts presented in the report.
Table of Contents
1 Chapter 1: Introduction 23
1.1 Executive Summary 23
1.2 Topics Covered 25
1.3 Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation 26
1.4 Key Questions Answered 28
1.5 Key Findings 29
1.6 Methodology 30
1.7 Target Audience 31
1.8 Companies & Organizations Mentioned 32
1.1 Executive Summary 23
1.2 Topics Covered 25
1.3 Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation 26
1.4 Key Questions Answered 28
1.5 Key Findings 29
1.6 Methodology 30
1.7 Target Audience 31
1.8 Companies & Organizations Mentioned 32
2 Chapter 2: LTE and LTE-Advanced Ecosystem 37
2.1 Mobile Broadband Growth 37
2.1.1 LTE: Adding Mobility to Broadband Applications 37
2.1.2 Flexibility of LTE Spectrum & Infrastructure Deployments 38
2.2 An Overview of LTE & LTE-Advanced 39
2.2.1 LTE: An Established Market 39
2.3 What are 4G Technology Features & Services? 39
2.3.1 LTE Performance Metrics 40
2.3.2 LTE Features 41
2.3.3 LTE Services 41
2.3.4 Motivation for LTE-A 42
2.4 What is LTE-A? 43
2.4.1 Carrier Aggregation 43
2.4.2 Optimizing Small Cell Performance 43
2.4.3 eICIC 43
2.4.4 Higher Order MIMO 44
2.4.5 CoMP 44
2.4.6 Unlicensed Spectrum 44
2.5 LTE Architecture 45
2.5.1 UE: User Equipment 46
2.5.2 E-UTRAN: The Access Network 47
2.5.3 The Concept of Home eNB (HeNB) 48
2.5.4 EPC: The Mobile Core 49
2.5.5 Functional Split between E-UTRAN and the EPC 51
2.6 Challenges & Inhibiters to 4G 52
2.6.1 Time to Market 52
2.6.2 Operator CapEx 52
2.6.3 Spectrum Requirement 52
2.6.4 Reduce Initial Investment 53
2.6.5 Interoperability with Legacy Networks 53
2.6.6 Voice and SMS Support 54
2.6.7 Need for Customizable Building Blocks 54
2.6.8 Common Solution for Different Subscriber Usage Needs 54
2.6.9 Investment Returns 55
2.6.10 Backhaul Capacity 55
2.7 4G Market Drivers 56
2.7.1 Competitive Operator Landscape 56
2.7.2 Growing Traffic Capacity Demands 56
2.7.3 LTE Value Proposition: Network Performance and Cost Savings 57
2.7.4 Application Ecosystem 58
2.7.5 Seamless Interoperability with Legacy Networks 59
2.7.6 Access Network Transparency with HetNets 61
2.7.7 End-to-End QoS 61
2.7.8 Spectrum Efficiency 61
2.7.9 Global Standard for Global Roaming 62
2.7.10 3GPP: Driving Economies of Scale 62
2.7.11 Enabling Cheaper Mobile Broadband Connectivity 63
2.1 Mobile Broadband Growth 37
2.1.1 LTE: Adding Mobility to Broadband Applications 37
2.1.2 Flexibility of LTE Spectrum & Infrastructure Deployments 38
2.2 An Overview of LTE & LTE-Advanced 39
2.2.1 LTE: An Established Market 39
2.3 What are 4G Technology Features & Services? 39
2.3.1 LTE Performance Metrics 40
2.3.2 LTE Features 41
2.3.3 LTE Services 41
2.3.4 Motivation for LTE-A 42
2.4 What is LTE-A? 43
2.4.1 Carrier Aggregation 43
2.4.2 Optimizing Small Cell Performance 43
2.4.3 eICIC 43
2.4.4 Higher Order MIMO 44
2.4.5 CoMP 44
2.4.6 Unlicensed Spectrum 44
2.5 LTE Architecture 45
2.5.1 UE: User Equipment 46
2.5.2 E-UTRAN: The Access Network 47
2.5.3 The Concept of Home eNB (HeNB) 48
2.5.4 EPC: The Mobile Core 49
2.5.5 Functional Split between E-UTRAN and the EPC 51
2.6 Challenges & Inhibiters to 4G 52
2.6.1 Time to Market 52
2.6.2 Operator CapEx 52
2.6.3 Spectrum Requirement 52
2.6.4 Reduce Initial Investment 53
2.6.5 Interoperability with Legacy Networks 53
2.6.6 Voice and SMS Support 54
2.6.7 Need for Customizable Building Blocks 54
2.6.8 Common Solution for Different Subscriber Usage Needs 54
2.6.9 Investment Returns 55
2.6.10 Backhaul Capacity 55
2.7 4G Market Drivers 56
2.7.1 Competitive Operator Landscape 56
2.7.2 Growing Traffic Capacity Demands 56
2.7.3 LTE Value Proposition: Network Performance and Cost Savings 57
2.7.4 Application Ecosystem 58
2.7.5 Seamless Interoperability with Legacy Networks 59
2.7.6 Access Network Transparency with HetNets 61
2.7.7 End-to-End QoS 61
2.7.8 Spectrum Efficiency 61
2.7.9 Global Standard for Global Roaming 62
2.7.10 3GPP: Driving Economies of Scale 62
2.7.11 Enabling Cheaper Mobile Broadband Connectivity 63
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3 Chapter 3: The 5G Ecosystem 64
3.1 What is 5G? 64
3.1.1 Key Concepts of 5G Technology 64
3.1.2 Key Features of 5G Technology 65
3.2 5G Architecture 67
3.2.1 Ubiquitous Computing 67
3.2.2 Core Aggregation & Flatter IP Concept 67
3.3 Challenges & Inhibitors to 5G 70
3.3.1 Skepticism 70
3.3.2 Spectrum Complexities 70
3.3.3 Integration of Various Standards 71
3.3.4 Common Platform 71
3.3.5 High Redundancy Requirement 71
3.3.6 Transparency among Network Operators 71
3.3.7 Reliability of Higher Frequency Bands 72
3.3.8 Backhaul 72
3.4 5G Performance 73
3.4.1 What are the relevant KPIs and Functional Requirements for 5G? 73
3.4.2 Round Trip Time (RTT) 73
3.4.3 Spectrum Availability 74
3.4.4 Spectrum Efficiency 74
3.4.5 Inbuilt Support of Self-Backhauling and Direct Device-to-Device 75
3.4.6 Low Power Consumption 75
3.4.7 Ultra Low Cost per Access Node 75
3.5 5G Market Drivers 77
3.5.1 Is LTE not the Answer to User Demands? 77
3.5.2 Why the Need for a 5G Standard? 77
3.5.3 Key Drivers for Growing Data Traffic 78
3.6 4G & 5G Applications and Content Services 79
3.6.1 Enabling Workforce Mobility, Cloud Computing and ICT Consumerization 79
3.6.2 Benefits of Mobility Applications 80
3.6.3 4G & 5: Enabling True Mobility of Applications 81
3.6.4 The Five Key Characteristics of Mobile Broadband 81
3.6.5 Benefits of 4G & 5G Over 3G and Wi-Fi 83
3.6.6 Vertical Applications of 4G & 5G 84
3.7 Technical Integration Aspects of 5G 85
3.7.1 5G System Model 85
3.7.2 RAN Integration 86
3.7.3 Application Connections 87
3.7.4 Routing 87
3.7.5 Transparency & Control 88
3.7.6 Network Abstraction Layer 89
3.8 5G Standardization and Research Initiatives 90
3.8.1 METIS 90
3.8.2 5GPP 91
3.8.3 Korea’s 5G Forum 91
3.8.4 Japan’s ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc 92
3.8.5 China’s IMT 2020 92
3.9 How much is being Invested in 5G R&D? 93
3.10 5G Requirements 94
3.11 Vertical Industries to Play a Key Role 94
3.12 SDN Capabilities Considered Inherit for 5G 95
3.13 Spectrum Aggregation is a Necessity 95
3.14 Authorized Shared Access (ASA) 95
3.15 Will 5G be a New Air Interface? 96
3.16 5G Demonstrations 96
3.16.1 Samsung 96
3.16.2 NSN 96
3.16.3 Huawei 97
3.1 What is 5G? 64
3.1.1 Key Concepts of 5G Technology 64
3.1.2 Key Features of 5G Technology 65
3.2 5G Architecture 67
3.2.1 Ubiquitous Computing 67
3.2.2 Core Aggregation & Flatter IP Concept 67
3.3 Challenges & Inhibitors to 5G 70
3.3.1 Skepticism 70
3.3.2 Spectrum Complexities 70
3.3.3 Integration of Various Standards 71
3.3.4 Common Platform 71
3.3.5 High Redundancy Requirement 71
3.3.6 Transparency among Network Operators 71
3.3.7 Reliability of Higher Frequency Bands 72
3.3.8 Backhaul 72
3.4 5G Performance 73
3.4.1 What are the relevant KPIs and Functional Requirements for 5G? 73
3.4.2 Round Trip Time (RTT) 73
3.4.3 Spectrum Availability 74
3.4.4 Spectrum Efficiency 74
3.4.5 Inbuilt Support of Self-Backhauling and Direct Device-to-Device 75
3.4.6 Low Power Consumption 75
3.4.7 Ultra Low Cost per Access Node 75
3.5 5G Market Drivers 77
3.5.1 Is LTE not the Answer to User Demands? 77
3.5.2 Why the Need for a 5G Standard? 77
3.5.3 Key Drivers for Growing Data Traffic 78
3.6 4G & 5G Applications and Content Services 79
3.6.1 Enabling Workforce Mobility, Cloud Computing and ICT Consumerization 79
3.6.2 Benefits of Mobility Applications 80
3.6.3 4G & 5: Enabling True Mobility of Applications 81
3.6.4 The Five Key Characteristics of Mobile Broadband 81
3.6.5 Benefits of 4G & 5G Over 3G and Wi-Fi 83
3.6.6 Vertical Applications of 4G & 5G 84
3.7 Technical Integration Aspects of 5G 85
3.7.1 5G System Model 85
3.7.2 RAN Integration 86
3.7.3 Application Connections 87
3.7.4 Routing 87
3.7.5 Transparency & Control 88
3.7.6 Network Abstraction Layer 89
3.8 5G Standardization and Research Initiatives 90
3.8.1 METIS 90
3.8.2 5GPP 91
3.8.3 Korea’s 5G Forum 91
3.8.4 Japan’s ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc 92
3.8.5 China’s IMT 2020 92
3.9 How much is being Invested in 5G R&D? 93
3.10 5G Requirements 94
3.11 Vertical Industries to Play a Key Role 94
3.12 SDN Capabilities Considered Inherit for 5G 95
3.13 Spectrum Aggregation is a Necessity 95
3.14 Authorized Shared Access (ASA) 95
3.15 Will 5G be a New Air Interface? 96
3.16 5G Demonstrations 96
3.16.1 Samsung 96
3.16.2 NSN 96
3.16.3 Huawei 97
4 Chapter 4: 4G & 5G Operator Deployment Models 98
4.1 LTE/EPC Deployment for an Existing 3GPP Operator 98
4.1.1 Devices 99
4.1.2 How to Introduce EPC into the Equation? 99
4.1.3 Replacing the Existing Core 100
4.1.4 Upgrading Subscriptions 102
4.1.5 Maintenance of Legacy and LTE Infrastructure 102
4.2 LTE/EPC for a Greenfield Operator 103
4.2.1 Roaming Capacity Planning 103
4.2.2 Initially Spotty Coverage 103
4.2.3 Starting Point Requirements 103
4.2.4 GRX Requirements and Resource Allocation 104
4.1 LTE/EPC Deployment for an Existing 3GPP Operator 98
4.1.1 Devices 99
4.1.2 How to Introduce EPC into the Equation? 99
4.1.3 Replacing the Existing Core 100
4.1.4 Upgrading Subscriptions 102
4.1.5 Maintenance of Legacy and LTE Infrastructure 102
4.2 LTE/EPC for a Greenfield Operator 103
4.2.1 Roaming Capacity Planning 103
4.2.2 Initially Spotty Coverage 103
4.2.3 Starting Point Requirements 103
4.2.4 GRX Requirements and Resource Allocation 104
5 Chapter 5: LTE/LTE-A Vertical Markets 106
5.1 Capitalizing on LTE and LTE-A 106
5.2 Vertical Market Case Studies 107
5.2.1 Construction Industry 107
5.2.2 Healthcare 107
5.2.3 Retail 108
5.2.4 Automotive and Transport 108
5.2.5 Professional Services 108
5.2.6 Public Safety & Emergency Services 109
5.2.7 Defense 110
5.2.8 Energy & Utilities 110
5.1 Capitalizing on LTE and LTE-A 106
5.2 Vertical Market Case Studies 107
5.2.1 Construction Industry 107
5.2.2 Healthcare 107
5.2.3 Retail 108
5.2.4 Automotive and Transport 108
5.2.5 Professional Services 108
5.2.6 Public Safety & Emergency Services 109
5.2.7 Defense 110
5.2.8 Energy & Utilities 110
6 Chapter 6: LTE/LTE-A Requirements in Core & Backhaul 112
6.1 Core Requirements for LTE & LTE-A 112
6.1.1 End of Circuit-Switched Voice 113
6.1.2 Evolved Wireless Broadband 113
6.1.3 Mobility as part of the Core 114
6.1.4 End-to-End QoS Becomes Essential 114
6.1.5 Policy Management and Enforcement 114
6.1.6 Change in Product Architecture 115
6.2 Backhaul Requirements for LTE & LTE-A 116
6.2.1 User Device Speeds 117
6.2.2 LTE Cell Site Backhaul Requirements 118
6.2.3 Improving LTE Throughput & Service Quality 120
6.2.4 Topologies for LTE Backhaul 121
6.2.5 Daisy Chains 121
6.2.6 Hub and Spoke 121
6.2.7 TREE/TIERED Networks 122
6.2.8 MESH and RING Networks 122
6.2.9 Backhaul Network Dimensioning 123
6.2.10 Example Dimensioning: Ring Topology 124
6.2.11 Network Dimensioning Guidelines 124
6.2.12 Traffic Asymmetry 125
6.1 Core Requirements for LTE & LTE-A 112
6.1.1 End of Circuit-Switched Voice 113
6.1.2 Evolved Wireless Broadband 113
6.1.3 Mobility as part of the Core 114
6.1.4 End-to-End QoS Becomes Essential 114
6.1.5 Policy Management and Enforcement 114
6.1.6 Change in Product Architecture 115
6.2 Backhaul Requirements for LTE & LTE-A 116
6.2.1 User Device Speeds 117
6.2.2 LTE Cell Site Backhaul Requirements 118
6.2.3 Improving LTE Throughput & Service Quality 120
6.2.4 Topologies for LTE Backhaul 121
6.2.5 Daisy Chains 121
6.2.6 Hub and Spoke 121
6.2.7 TREE/TIERED Networks 122
6.2.8 MESH and RING Networks 122
6.2.9 Backhaul Network Dimensioning 123
6.2.10 Example Dimensioning: Ring Topology 124
6.2.11 Network Dimensioning Guidelines 124
6.2.12 Traffic Asymmetry 125
7 Chapter 7: Industry Roadmap & Value Chain 126
7.1 Industry Roadmap 126
7.1.1 Initial LTE FDD Rollouts: 2010 - 2011 126
7.1.2 Rise of the HetNet Ecosystem: 2012 - 2013 127
7.1.3 A Wave of TD-LTE Deployments: 2014 - 2016 127
7.1.4 Moving Towards “Software Centric” Networking: 2017 - 2019 128
7.1.5 Start of the 5G Era: 2020 & Beyond 128
7.2 Value Chain 129
7.3 Embedded Technology Ecosystem 129
7.3.1 Chipset Developers 129
7.3.2 Embedded Component/Software Providers 129
7.4 RAN Ecosystem 132
7.4.1 Macrocell RAN OEMs 132
7.4.2 ‘Pure-Play’ and Specialist Small Cell OEMs 133
7.4.3 WiFi Access Point OEMs 134
7.4.4 DAS & Repeater Solution Providers 135
7.4.5 Cloud RAN Solution Providers 136
7.4.6 Other Technology & Network Component Providers/Enablers 137
7.5 Mobile Backhaul Ecosystem 138
7.5.1 Backhaul Solution Providers 138
7.6 Mobile Core Ecosystem 139
7.6.1 Core Network Infrastructure & Software Providers 139
7.7 Connectivity Ecosystem 140
7.7.1 2G, 3G & 4G Wireless Carriers 140
7.7.2 WiFi Connectivity Providers 142
7.7.3 Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS) Providers 142
7.8 SON Ecosystem 143
7.8.1 SON Solution Providers 143
7.9 SDN & NFV Ecosystem 144
7.9.1 SDN & NFV Providers 144
7.1 Industry Roadmap 126
7.1.1 Initial LTE FDD Rollouts: 2010 - 2011 126
7.1.2 Rise of the HetNet Ecosystem: 2012 - 2013 127
7.1.3 A Wave of TD-LTE Deployments: 2014 - 2016 127
7.1.4 Moving Towards “Software Centric” Networking: 2017 - 2019 128
7.1.5 Start of the 5G Era: 2020 & Beyond 128
7.2 Value Chain 129
7.3 Embedded Technology Ecosystem 129
7.3.1 Chipset Developers 129
7.3.2 Embedded Component/Software Providers 129
7.4 RAN Ecosystem 132
7.4.1 Macrocell RAN OEMs 132
7.4.2 ‘Pure-Play’ and Specialist Small Cell OEMs 133
7.4.3 WiFi Access Point OEMs 134
7.4.4 DAS & Repeater Solution Providers 135
7.4.5 Cloud RAN Solution Providers 136
7.4.6 Other Technology & Network Component Providers/Enablers 137
7.5 Mobile Backhaul Ecosystem 138
7.5.1 Backhaul Solution Providers 138
7.6 Mobile Core Ecosystem 139
7.6.1 Core Network Infrastructure & Software Providers 139
7.7 Connectivity Ecosystem 140
7.7.1 2G, 3G & 4G Wireless Carriers 140
7.7.2 WiFi Connectivity Providers 142
7.7.3 Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS) Providers 142
7.8 SON Ecosystem 143
7.8.1 SON Solution Providers 143
7.9 SDN & NFV Ecosystem 144
7.9.1 SDN & NFV Providers 144
8 Chapter 8: Vendor & Operator Landscape 145
8.1 LTE Infrastructure 145
8.1.1 Alcatel-Lucent 145
8.1.2 Cisco 146
8.1.3 Datang Mobile 147
8.1.4 Ericsson 147
8.1.5 Fujitsu 149
8.1.6 Huawei 149
8.1.7 New Postcom Equipment 150
8.1.8 NEC 151
8.1.9 Nokia Solutions & Networks (NSN) 151
8.1.10 Samsung 152
8.1.11 ZTE 153
8.2 LTE Devices 154
8.2.1 Apple 154
8.2.2 BlackBerry 155
8.2.3 Fujitsu (Formerly Fujitsu-Toshiba) 155
8.2.4 HTC 155
8.2.5 Huawei 156
8.2.6 Kyocera 156
8.2.7 LG 156
8.2.8 Motorola Mobility 157
8.2.9 NEC Casio Mobile Communications 157
8.2.10 Nokia 158
8.2.11 Panasonic 158
8.2.12 Pantech 159
8.2.13 Samsung 159
8.2.14 Sharp 159
8.2.15 Sony Mobile 160
8.2.16 ZTE 160
8.3 LTE Operators 161
8.3.1 AT&T Mobility 161
8.3.2 China Mobile 161
8.3.3 EE 162
8.3.4 KDDI 163
8.3.5 KT 163
8.3.6 LG Uplus 164
8.3.7 NTT DoCoMo 165
8.3.8 SK Telecom 166
8.3.9 SoftBank 167
8.3.10 Verizon Wireless 168
8.1 LTE Infrastructure 145
8.1.1 Alcatel-Lucent 145
8.1.2 Cisco 146
8.1.3 Datang Mobile 147
8.1.4 Ericsson 147
8.1.5 Fujitsu 149
8.1.6 Huawei 149
8.1.7 New Postcom Equipment 150
8.1.8 NEC 151
8.1.9 Nokia Solutions & Networks (NSN) 151
8.1.10 Samsung 152
8.1.11 ZTE 153
8.2 LTE Devices 154
8.2.1 Apple 154
8.2.2 BlackBerry 155
8.2.3 Fujitsu (Formerly Fujitsu-Toshiba) 155
8.2.4 HTC 155
8.2.5 Huawei 156
8.2.6 Kyocera 156
8.2.7 LG 156
8.2.8 Motorola Mobility 157
8.2.9 NEC Casio Mobile Communications 157
8.2.10 Nokia 158
8.2.11 Panasonic 158
8.2.12 Pantech 159
8.2.13 Samsung 159
8.2.14 Sharp 159
8.2.15 Sony Mobile 160
8.2.16 ZTE 160
8.3 LTE Operators 161
8.3.1 AT&T Mobility 161
8.3.2 China Mobile 161
8.3.3 EE 162
8.3.4 KDDI 163
8.3.5 KT 163
8.3.6 LG Uplus 164
8.3.7 NTT DoCoMo 165
8.3.8 SK Telecom 166
8.3.9 SoftBank 167
8.3.10 Verizon Wireless 168
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